🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.